Escalation Without a Clear Endgame

An illegal war can still cause enormous damage. Just because something is reckless doesn’t also mean it can’t spiral into something consequential....or catastrophic.

As the war enters its fourth day, the US and Israel are vowing to escalate the assault on Iran. Tehran’s remnant leadership is determined to foment regional chaos.

Three broad outcomes seem possible:

► The rosiest scenario is that days of air attacks on instruments of Iranian state repression could precipitate a popular uprising. A new Iran could transform the Middle East.

► A messier, and perhaps more likely, possibility is that Iran’s surviving leaders build a new regime. But the US operation could still succeed by gutting the nuclear, missile and military capacity that makes Iran a regional threat. This may be an acceptable outcome for Israel but could lead to future wars to prevent Iran’s new regime rebuilding its capabilities.

► The worst-case scenario is that Iran mirrors Libya amid a power vacuum in a state destroyed by years of authoritarianism. Factional fighting or a civil war could erupt, exporting chaos, causing a refugee crisis and leaving Iran’s uranium stocks vulnerable to extremist groups.

If Americans are confused by what’s ahead, it’s not surprising, since the administration keeps changing its rationale for war.

Trump has posited regime change and a desire to give Iranians their freedom. He’s pledged to destroy a nuclear program he’d already claimed to have obliterated. "Totally obliterated". Hegseth on Monday stressed the need to avenge Americans killed by Iranian terror attacks or by Iranian-backed militia during the US occupation of Iraq. Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued that the US staged preemptive war because Israel planned to attack Iran and American troops in the region would face reprisals.

So..... WHY??